Ian Bond, director of foreign policy, evaluates Russia and Ukraines performance in the war and the Western response. Subscribed and very satisfied. Europe needs a new strategy. There are always pressures to spend more on public sector wages, while the reform of health and social care services, and pensions, is difficult. The effect of labour scarcity on wages and, consequently, on income inequality, depends on existing labour market institutions. Publications, research projects, news & events. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. However, some discussants also thought attempts to limit decoupling to a few strategic sectors might prove impossible in practice, and could instead lead to spill-overs into other sectors, creating much larger economic costs. For some participants, this means that governments and central banks should do much more to use their balance sheets to reduce the cost of capital for green investment. There were different views on the right course of action for central banks. Soon after Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British government demanded changes to the Protocol. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. As with NGEU, the Commission would assess these plans according to how well they tackled problems that were identified in its country-specific recommendations. The new Northern Ireland deal gives it hope, Brexit: UK immigration system found to contribute to labour shortages, Ukraine war: Europe has turned a crisis into an opportunity, and its better off for it. Firms with cutting-edge technology attract high-wage, high-productivity workers, whereas those further away from the frontier are less able to offer higher wages to their workers. We are pro-European but not uncritical. This apparently showed that the economic benefits of the UK forging FTAs with third countries outside the EU were significantly less than the economic costs of leaving the customs union, he said. In this weeks episode of the CER podcast Ian Bond discusses the Ukraine-Russia war with Sir Richard Shireff & Dr Olesya Khromeychuk. In the US, a substantial part of the rise in wage inequality in recent decades can be explained by new technology adoption, whereas this explains a smaller part of the rise in Europe. He is a member of the council of the Ditchley Foundation, and chairman of the foundation's programme committee. The CER's annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe. These decisions are often driven by a combination of national security concerns, corporate interests and other political considerations, such as labour union pressure. Filtered Search, Enter your email address to subscribe to MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email. Nationalist economic policies like Brexit pose long-term problems for the countries that pursue them: UK services trade is lagging, and goods trade with the EU has never recovered from Brexit. Design and development by Soapbox. And in Brussels it has avoided the trap of simply embracing institutional orthodoxy and has led the way towards that continuous adaptation and reform which is essential to the EU if it is to prosper and to be effective. Might scarcer labour reduce income inequality and induce more productivity-enhancing investment? There have been shared problems, including disruptions in supply chains and a rapid shift in demand from goods to services as pandemic restrictions loosened, with supply struggling to catch up. Produced by Helmi Pillai and Octavia HughesMusic by Edward Hipkins, CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market, In this week's episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast, the CER's deputy director John Springford and professor at King's College London Jonathan Portes discuss their report 'Early impacts of the post-Brexit immigration system on the UK labour market'. For example, flows of foreign direct investment are growing steadily. These can be found around the world, but China currently provides around 85 per cent of them and it is not clear whether it will have sufficient capacity to supply Europe. Will the ECB be ultimately forced to choose between curbing inflation and compressing spreads, and is the Transmission Protection instrument a recipe for moral hazard? It is probably too controversial to give the EU a role in macroeconomic stabilisation through cyclical tax and spending. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Will labour be scarcer in the future? The EU is doing enough to prevent supply stoppages this winter and next liquefied natural gas (LNG), renewables and coal are coming online, and together with reduced energy consumption, that means Europe can do without Russian gas entirely. Some fretted that these dynamics might give rise to a situation of financial or fiscal dominance, in which central banks saw themselves forced to pursue a looser stance to avoid instability in the financial sector or bond markets. Efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have stalled and Tehran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons. With Lars Danielsson, Permanent Representative of Sweden to the EU, Speakers included: Agns Bnassy-Qur, Marco Buti, Benot Cur, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli and Martin Sandbu, With Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament, With David Lammy, Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Affairs, UK, Winner of the Prospect 2015 Think Tank of the Year Award - UK International Affairs. The most important drawback of swift rate hikes and shrinking central bank balance sheets is that these measures may choke off the investment urgently needed for the energy transition. In 2004 he became a chevalier of Frances Ordre Nationale du Mrite, and in 2013 a Companion of St Michael and St George (CMG) "for services to European and wider international policy-making". This seems fundamentally incompatible with the overall political aim of an EU single market for energy. We also think that the EU should take on more . These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation. In this Centre for European Reform podcast, head of our Brussels office, Camino Mortera-Martinez, speaks to our director, Charles Grant, about the potential shape of this new European organisation, the purpose it would serve, and which countries might be involved. Ask CER - Episode 8: Inflation Reduction Act, Qatargate and Iran, CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market, CER podcast: The implications of Russia's war against Ukraine, Discussion on 'Monetary policy after the energy shock', CER/Kreab breakfast on 'How to strengthen the EU? Charles Grant, a journalist at The Economist, left his position there in 1998 to work at CER on a full-time basis, and has led the organization since then. The UK was also a special case: since Brexit, labour scarcity has already made public opinion more favourable to immigration. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Ad-Free Login We are not affiliated with any government, political party or European institution. "The Centre for European Reform, by far the best of all EU think-tanks in London"The Guardian, "A think-tank that manages to be both Atlanticist and Europhile" The Economist, "A think-tank with an increasingly influential role in the shaping of official policy" Financial Times, "Like many people I am bombarded with information on a daily, basis about Europe. However, poor working conditions for less skilled workers mean that the UK and US, and other countries committed to. The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union. In the long term, a range of pressures on public budgets will arise: demands for higher health and pension spending, and public investment for the net zero transition. The CER also estimated the tax loss from Brexit to be around 40bn. We are pro-European but not uncritical. He is a vice chairman of Business for New Europe. The decoupling of the Russian-European energy relationship has also reverberated elsewhere in the world. With very high headline inflation, and core inflation above target, the European Central Bank (ECB) is tightening monetary policy rapidly. For example, the Wests initially targeted sanctions against Russia have become ever-broader. While the Federal Reserve can put the brakes on an economy that is coming out of a position of strength, the trade-offs for the ECB are much starker. Mildly encouraging progress has been made on some issues in recent years. One risk to this scenario is a re-opening of Chinas economy, which could imply very high Chinese demand for global LNG. Is it too soon for Breconciliation? Climate change is another example where global co-operation will prove more effective and less economically harmful than unilateral efforts. These countries concerns are not irrational. It also meant higher taxes on pollution and traffic congestion. Since then, trade openness has been in slow decline, accelerating in the first year of the Covid pandemic. They have always been clear,precise, technically sound and well informed. The CER won best UK international affairs think-tank at the Prospect Think Tank Awards 2013. Gas consumption is down, with industry rapidly switching to alternative fuel sources. Search . Deepening our understanding of opportunities and challenges related to demographic change, migration and mobility. The Center for European Policy Analysis is currently pending or under review. The controversy over leaked assessments of the economic damage of Brexit has deepened after a right-leaning think-tank was forced to deny it told ministers that supposedly independent civil service studies on the matter were deliberately skewed. What are the reasons for the differences in core inflation between continental Europe and the UK and the US, and should their monetary policies differ? For example, there is no Western consensus on whether the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients or smartphones is strategically important. The Centre for European Reform (CER) is a London-based think tank that focuses on matters of European integration. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use.Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform. Italys borrowing costs have not spiralled out of control, in part thanks to the ECBs Transmission Protection Instrument, but spreads have been increasing. Participants speculated over possible future developments in key sectors: healthcare and building retrofitting would need large numbers of workers, yet jobs in those sectors were not attractive today. Failed Fact Checks: None in the Last 5 years. Might tight labour markets make Europeans more welcoming to immigrants? If Turkey continues to block Swedish membership, Finland should join NATO alone. Session 3: Are we moving from a labour glut to a labour shortage? Will fraying globalisation or even outright disintegration of the global economy lead to higher inflation and falling real living standards, or might it create opportunities for left-behind regions in Europe? The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. Despite its rhetoric, the new government in Rome has so far pursued a very conservative fiscal policy and has shown no sign of changing that prudent course. Charles Grant is director of the Centre for European Reform (CER). Government support for investment in energy efficiency and the green transition is therefore paramount. For example, recent US export controls aim to foreclose Chinas access to key semiconductor technologies in order to constrain Chinas development. Raising growth in the knowledge economy means stable and well-designed regulations, taxes and competition policies. It is trusted and respected throughoutthe EU as serious and sensible.Sir Robert Cooper, Former adviser to EU High Representative, Whether youre a government official, involvedin international business, or a journalist orresearcher, the CER is your indispensable guideto the European Union today. That means taxes will have to rise. Publications, research projects, news & events. Thanks, INSIDE BRIEFING with Institute for Government. In these rapidly changing political times,the experts at the CER provide the high qualityanalysis and intelligence on some of the mosttopical issues of interest today. Emmanuel Macron set out his vision for a 'European Political Community' in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on May 9th. Is the EU becoming more protectionist, or are its attempts to create a more level playing field globally justified? An additional risk is that prevailing uncertainty, coupled with tightening financial conditions, might reduce investment in climate mitigation and adaptation. Some EU countries want to stifle foreign cloud computing services. Without sufficient storage during the transition period, energy sources that can provide continuous service will still be needed. Support MBFC Donations As we review CEPA please rate their bias. How can Europe avoid locking in temporary solutions such as switching from gas to coal, or from piped to shipped gas? A Brussels-based think-tank and lobby operation which was established originally as the privately owned lobby firms: Bemont European Community Law Office, and Belmont European Policy Centre. 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